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welcome to the skeptic zone the podcast

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from Australia for science and reason

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[Music]

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[Applause]

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[Music]

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yes it's the skeptic zone podcast

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episode number 598 for the 29th of March

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2020 Whichard saunders coming to you

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from the streets of Sydney Australia

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where I'm off for my pre-dawn exercise

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walk very important to keep routines and

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[Applause]

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every now and then a car will drive by

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on a nearby street but apart from that

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and it's well I don't have to tell you

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it's like I've walked out in some sort

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of funny Hollywood movie really very

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strange coming up on this week's show

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maynard talks to astronomer Kirsten

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Banks about a comet that's heading our

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way comet Atlas hopefully this will be

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quite visible in the northern hemisphere

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in northern parts of Australia and it's

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unknown but it could be quite

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spectacular it could be very bright in

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the sky so it may not judge the curstyn

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about that

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and now the matters relating to one of

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my favourite topics

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astronomy following that we have a

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message from Michelle Franklin in the

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Northern Territory about how that area

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of Australia is coping dealing with the

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current covert situation now just come

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to a table here in a nearby park and

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it's full of empty beer bottles hmmm

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what's going on here last night next up

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we have the return of logical fallacies

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with Michelle because Mar this week

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Michelle looks at post hoc ergo propter

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hoc then another message from one of our

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reporters Heidi Robertson from the

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Northern Rivers vaccination supporters

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now Heidi is going to tell us what it's

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like to be a mum at home suddenly

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finding herself in the role of a teacher

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like many people are around the world

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our bird life here in the

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[\h__\h] what's that still a bit quiet the

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sun's not up yet somebody over there

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walking their dog pretty quiet then to

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round off the show it's the book of Tim

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with part two of Tim's reading of the

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adventure we had some years ago testing

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water diviners walking around a gazebo a

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Bandstand that was built probably a

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hundred years ago again and this huge

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park that are just two people I can just

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see through the gloom getting their

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daily exercise I guess we had a lot of

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rain last night just walking up across

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and it's interesting now working on the

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skeptic zone because I had hoped I had

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hoped that in a couple of weeks we'd

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have a special think tank for the system

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six six hundred episode of the show and

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I get the local team in Sydney here and

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some guests to come to the club at the

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end of the street and we'd all have a

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nice dinner and do a group recording

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well needless to say I'll have to change

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those plans

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it's a pity not being able to see lots

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of people but as we're all discovering

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online connections with others it can

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still be great and online connections

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with people that you miss or people that

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you love is better than nothing I guess

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I would hate to think what a similar

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situation would have been like 20 years

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ago or 30 years ago I guess the phone

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lines would be ringing hot with people

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constantly calling each other but now we

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can have home office home meetings

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skyping and all the rest of it there

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will be some new industries being born

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at the moment it's still bizarre walking

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around this empty Park anyway and now

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it's time for me to keep on walking to

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get those kilometres up to keep fit what

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I do that I hope you enjoy the skeptic

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[Music]

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years may not spooky action at the

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on the line I've got someone that they

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could be some some big stuff in the sky

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people its cub reporter mane aren't here

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putting on my astrophysicist this is

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that but I think we should actually talk

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to a real astrophysicist which is

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Kirsten banks hi Kirsten how are you

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hello I'm good how are you

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hole pretty good people would have seen

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your plenty of skeptical things over the

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years presenting all sorts of things I

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saw your last hunting for emu eggs yes I

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brought my email all along onto the

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stage and unfortunately Mia came along

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oh yeah well you don't get many chats

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with these days no well did you get

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turkey man's Bush Turkey mounds they

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haven't at Chatswood babe yes I'm

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ringing you because some it's gonna be a

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big buffle in the northern hemisphere

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fairly shortly because we're going to

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have a near-earth object or a comet come

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our way and it's called the Atlas comet

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or C 2019 y4 and it will be visible with

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the naked eye but in the northern

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hemisphere only if it doesn't break up

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tell us all about it

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so this new comet was discovered using

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the Atlas system so it's the asteroid

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terrestrial impact last alert system

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which sounds pretty dire it does

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actually look for asteroid that may

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potentially impact the earth however it

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does sometimes find comets like this one

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see slash 2019 why for very catchy name

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isn't it it is I think the Atlas comet

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is a much better name for it and I

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inserted already through binoculars have

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you got your home telescope and have a

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look at it yet I do have my home

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telescope but unfortunately it's a bit

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too low in the sky for us here in

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Australia it's over in the north north

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western sky which from where I am looks

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directly over the sydney city obama

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because we won't see this at all in the

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southern hemisphere really well if

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you're lucky enough to be a bit further

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north than us in sydney you might better

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see it pretty okay because it will be

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near Venus when it starts getting quite

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bright and I'm very excited I wish I was

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in the northern hemisphere so very happy

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for a northern hemisphere friend to be

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enjoying this in a few months time but

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currently this comment the atlas comment

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is crossing Martha's orbit and coming

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into the inner solar system so

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Komets come into the central part of our

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solar system they're starting to get

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vaporized and melted essentially by the

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heat and the radiation of the Sun those

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comets are essentially dirty snowballs

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so when it comes out they're filthy

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they're filthy dirty snowballs like I've

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had enough of them they come around here

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in their filthy deathtrap sometimes they

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leave us a lovely little view that's

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true so will we see is it the reflection

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of the ice in the comet that makes them

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so visible or just the fact they're just

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so close to the Sun Sun depending on how

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big they are I'm pretty sure and the

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league starts to get vaporized by the

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Sun so you see this ice tail is

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vaporization tail as it moves closer to

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the Sun at the moment as I said it's

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moving past Mars and coming close to yes

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it will be closest to the earth on the

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23rd of May this year but when I say

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close it'll be about 117 million

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kilometers away from the earth which is

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about three hundred and three times the

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distance from us to the moon I want to

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bring this up with you because I was

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looking this up because I recommended

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there should be a link in the show notes

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to the near-earth object table and

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they've got everything there in lunar

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units at lunar distance and astronomical

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units now what do they mean to someone

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like me who just goes down to the shops

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what is a lunar distance and an

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astronomical unit the lunar distance

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we'll start without one that's a smaller

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one it's the average distance that the

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earth is from the moon or the moon is

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from the earth whichever way you'd like

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to look at it which is usually around

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300,000 kilometers more or less well I

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saw on the day we're recording this

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there's something coming through at

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point six of a lunar distance that

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sounds close that is pretty close but

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point six on lunar distance would be

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still about a hundred and seventy

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thousand kilometers away so I'm not too

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worried about that one okay and

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everything else seems to be coming a lot

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further than that and on the Sunday that

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this goes out I see there's something at

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two point nine lunar distance so that's

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fairly safe yeah yeah and there's a bit

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of talk that this this may be due this

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comet that common atlas comment might be

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a part of the great comet of 1844 that

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might have broke

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when it ran around that time if you

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heard anything about that I haven't

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heard about that it's quite interesting

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to see that it might be just a bit of a

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chunk of this extra comet that's come by

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earlier yeah and and is it possible that

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it could actually break up by the Sun's

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gravity and we might have not seen it

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all from the northern hemisphere

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possibly I have my feet across but that

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doesn't happen because the prediction of

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they're made of how bright this comet

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might be is possibly it will be brighter

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than Venus and Venus if you've seen it

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in the night sky it is there brilliantly

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bright white light it's quite fantastic

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so if this comet is brighter than Venus

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I really hope we get to see that because

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that would be fantastic especially it

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sometime missed Halley's Comet by 11

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years oh I saw that I saw that from the

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beach once

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yeah it was kind of interesting and this

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is gonna be brighter than that

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potentially yes people got a bit got

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their knickers it or not when that went

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through and of course at the every time

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Halley's Comet comes past people go oh

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it's a portent it's a harbinger of

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something evil and bad and that will be

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when a lot of people are gonna be locked

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in their homes possibly with sounds like

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symptoms it could very well be a bit of

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a bad I mean which it

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comets and the appearance of comments in

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mythology and other cultural astronomy

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is have usually been bad omens but I can

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be good omens as well so I'd like to say

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to everyone that this is a good omen I

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think it will be fantastic and will be a

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great way for the world to kind of band

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together and enjoy this astronomical

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light show fingers crossed if it does

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happen we can enjoy that together in

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solidarity in isolation and as someone

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with an indigenous background what did

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the indigenous population of Australia

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make of comets did they have a comet

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specifically different to other things I

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observed in the sky

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comets the definitely way different in

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their currencies of comets in the

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literature and in stories I don't know

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enough about comets to speak more

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broadly on it but they were definitely

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covered if you want to learn more about

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comets in Aboriginal astronomy from

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Australia you can go to the Aboriginal

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astronomy comm go to you website

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and you can learn all about comments

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from this and you're pretty sure that we

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won't be able to see it anywhere in this

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00:12:12,879 --> 00:12:09,860
drug we should be able to see it from

274
00:12:14,519 --> 00:12:12,889
Sydney it will be near Venus when it

275
00:12:16,269 --> 00:12:14,529
starts to get exciting

276
00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:16,279
unfortunately comments can be quite

277
00:12:20,439 --> 00:12:18,290
unpredictable so we'll just wait and see

278
00:12:23,139 --> 00:12:20,449
but if anywhere further north than

279
00:12:26,259 --> 00:12:23,149
Sydney you should have a good chance of

280
00:12:28,299 --> 00:12:26,269
seeing it higher in the sky and it's on

281
00:12:29,829 --> 00:12:28,309
such a long elliptical orbit that it

282
00:12:30,359 --> 00:12:29,839
won't be back for thousands of years

283
00:12:32,769 --> 00:12:30,369
rumor

284
00:12:34,780 --> 00:12:32,779
exactly it's coming in so tight to the

285
00:12:37,090 --> 00:12:34,790
Sun that if it doesn't survive coming

286
00:12:39,850 --> 00:12:37,100
around the Sun it'll scoot away for a

287
00:12:42,249 --> 00:12:39,860
very long time before it ever decides to

288
00:12:43,869 --> 00:12:42,259
come back and we got anything else like

289
00:12:45,220 --> 00:12:43,879
that coming up interesting in the year

290
00:12:47,439 --> 00:12:45,230
is there anything more visible in the

291
00:12:50,289 --> 00:12:47,449
sky well Kirsten tell us about that so

292
00:12:52,090 --> 00:12:50,299
shut up well there's one thing I'm very

293
00:12:54,879 --> 00:12:52,100
excited about which is happening near

294
00:12:57,970 --> 00:12:54,889
Christmas this year we have what's

295
00:12:59,470 --> 00:12:57,980
called a great conjunction this is where

296
00:13:01,449 --> 00:12:59,480
we're talking about planets so planets

297
00:13:03,129 --> 00:13:01,459
can sometimes appear close to each other

298
00:13:05,710 --> 00:13:03,139
in the sky there are some great photos

299
00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:05,720
of two planets and the moon and a

300
00:13:10,150 --> 00:13:07,610
crescent moon making a smiley face in

301
00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:10,160
the sky through the great photos to see

302
00:13:16,329 --> 00:13:13,490
but in late December this year we will

303
00:13:18,579 --> 00:13:16,339
see Jupiter and Saturn get so close to

304
00:13:21,519 --> 00:13:18,589
each other that they'll look like one

305
00:13:22,809 --> 00:13:21,529
star wow that's gonna be amazing is

306
00:13:24,220 --> 00:13:22,819
there an app you've got on your phone

307
00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:24,230
that you'd recommend that people have to

308
00:13:27,039 --> 00:13:25,610
point at the night sky I've seen them

309
00:13:28,780 --> 00:13:27,049
wearing now you can point it and it does

310
00:13:33,189 --> 00:13:28,790
the yeah doesn't it working it out for

311
00:13:35,139 --> 00:13:33,199
you yes star walk or sky guide hey all

312
00:13:37,239 --> 00:13:35,149
of them are pretty good because they use

313
00:13:40,389 --> 00:13:37,249
generally the same sort of database and

314
00:13:42,129 --> 00:13:40,399
we know where stars and planets are

315
00:13:45,489 --> 00:13:42,139
going to be any time for the next

316
00:13:47,109 --> 00:13:45,499
hundred times n years we've been

317
00:13:49,179 --> 00:13:47,119
studying the Stars for many many years

318
00:13:50,739 --> 00:13:49,189
and I like to bring this up because I

319
00:13:52,989 --> 00:13:50,749
always enjoy a good kerfuffle here

320
00:13:55,389 --> 00:13:52,999
I've always been puzzled by what that

321
00:13:57,309 --> 00:13:55,399
hexagonal shape on me is the North Pole

322
00:13:58,629 --> 00:13:57,319
of Neptune it's like it doesn't look

323
00:14:01,150 --> 00:13:58,639
like a natural feature what do you

324
00:14:04,030 --> 00:14:01,160
think's going on there it does look very

325
00:14:06,039 --> 00:14:04,040
interesting it doesn't it is it seems to

326
00:14:07,900 --> 00:14:06,049
me that it's some sort of resonance with

327
00:14:11,889 --> 00:14:07,910
the spinning of the planet and the

328
00:14:14,170 --> 00:14:11,899
movement of cash and wind around that

329
00:14:17,140 --> 00:14:14,180
area there's one on

330
00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:17,150
fashion as well oh hang on well well I

331
00:14:20,110 --> 00:14:19,010
mean I come on that doesn't sound

332
00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:20,120
natural that's sounding a bit like

333
00:14:24,550 --> 00:14:22,850
someone's put something there well I

334
00:14:26,470 --> 00:14:24,560
guess we'll just have to go and have a

335
00:14:29,050 --> 00:14:26,480
look someday I'm sure we will look what

336
00:14:30,430 --> 00:14:29,060
your favorite planet in the in the solar

337
00:14:32,140 --> 00:14:30,440
system by the way if you've got one

338
00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:32,150
because there's quite a good ones

339
00:14:35,500 --> 00:14:33,770
I mean sentence pretty fantastic with

340
00:14:35,950 --> 00:14:35,510
the Rings but Jupiter's got a lot going

341
00:14:38,650 --> 00:14:35,960
for it

342
00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:38,660
are you a gas giant girl I definitely am

343
00:14:43,570 --> 00:14:40,450
a gas giant girl and I have to say

344
00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:43,580
staffing always makes me feel good

345
00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:46,490
inside plus fashion is clearly the king

346
00:14:50,770 --> 00:14:47,930
of all planets in the solar system now

347
00:14:53,950 --> 00:14:50,780
because a has the best ring undoubtedly

348
00:14:57,460 --> 00:14:53,960
and be it now has more concerned moons

349
00:14:58,810 --> 00:14:57,470
than Jupiter oh oh well I'm will well

350
00:14:59,980 --> 00:14:58,820
that's because I'm a jupiter kind of

351
00:15:02,020 --> 00:14:59,990
person just cuz it's so big and it

352
00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:02,030
protects us from stuff hitting us that's

353
00:15:06,340 --> 00:15:04,210
very true

354
00:15:08,380 --> 00:15:06,350
it does that kinda thing and come here

355
00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:08,390
to see Pluto at all they're usually in

356
00:15:11,770 --> 00:15:10,130
the night sky it's just so far away and

357
00:15:14,650 --> 00:15:11,780
it's not reflective do we ever get to

358
00:15:17,110 --> 00:15:14,660
see it it's very far away it's very

359
00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:17,120
small so we can never see it with the

360
00:15:21,580 --> 00:15:19,130
naked eye in the night sky even with

361
00:15:23,350 --> 00:15:21,590
small telescopes you need to attach a

362
00:15:25,390 --> 00:15:23,360
camera at the back of a telescope and

363
00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:25,400
take a long exposure to leave your

364
00:15:32,170 --> 00:15:29,530
camera lens open for at least 10 seconds

365
00:15:35,950 --> 00:15:32,180
just to see a little little speck Oh

366
00:15:37,780 --> 00:15:35,960
Pluto which I've seen once look I wanted

367
00:15:40,030 --> 00:15:37,790
to been unusual that people who also

368
00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:40,040
watch the sky and and have a look around

369
00:15:43,690 --> 00:15:42,050
it like astrologers haven't mentioned

370
00:15:45,430 --> 00:15:43,700
anything about this comet yet and it's

371
00:15:47,110 --> 00:15:45,440
not visible yet but you think that they

372
00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:47,120
would be saying something about or it

373
00:15:52,810 --> 00:15:49,970
already since they predict stuff yeah

374
00:15:54,790 --> 00:15:52,820
you think so but you know what I think

375
00:15:57,400 --> 00:15:54,800
about astronomy and astrology astrology

376
00:16:00,250 --> 00:15:57,410
is a would not even a pseudoscience it's

377
00:16:02,590 --> 00:16:00,260
not scientific but having said that if

378
00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:02,600
you believe in astrology I think that's

379
00:16:07,300 --> 00:16:04,730
great because that means you're looking

380
00:16:09,370 --> 00:16:07,310
at the Stars and you're appreciating out

381
00:16:11,380 --> 00:16:09,380
universe for how you want to interpret

382
00:16:13,570 --> 00:16:11,390
it and I think that's all I'm happy with

383
00:16:14,740 --> 00:16:13,580
well very diplomatic Kirsten and as a

384
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:14,750
shout out what's your favorite

385
00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:17,450
constellation before we go favorite

386
00:16:24,670 --> 00:16:21,770
constellation yeah that once you have

387
00:16:26,140 --> 00:16:24,680
someone in your at your trade to pick

388
00:16:27,519 --> 00:16:26,150
their favorite constellation that could

389
00:16:30,699 --> 00:16:27,529
cause a fight it

390
00:16:34,780 --> 00:16:30,709
could it could I would have to say the

391
00:16:36,879 --> 00:16:34,790
Scorpion was the first constellation I

392
00:16:40,389 --> 00:16:36,889
was ever shown in the night sky other

393
00:16:43,119 --> 00:16:40,399
than the Southern Cross and it's been a

394
00:16:44,860 --> 00:16:43,129
very it's been held in my heart for a

395
00:16:46,210 --> 00:16:44,870
very long time tell me what everyone

396
00:16:48,189 --> 00:16:46,220
sort of been locked down at the moment

397
00:16:51,009 --> 00:16:48,199
staying at home is there any less light

398
00:16:53,139 --> 00:16:51,019
pollution than usual not that I've

399
00:16:55,059 --> 00:16:53,149
noticed but I think we should change

400
00:16:57,579 --> 00:16:55,069
that since people aren't really going

401
00:16:59,559 --> 00:16:57,589
out at nighttime there's not much need

402
00:17:02,170 --> 00:16:59,569
for all of this excess light pollution

403
00:17:04,329 --> 00:17:02,180
or the light to be toned down or turned

404
00:17:05,679 --> 00:17:04,339
off I think that we should make a

405
00:17:07,659 --> 00:17:05,689
difference about this let's all enjoy

406
00:17:09,610 --> 00:17:07,669
the night sky while we can at the moment

407
00:17:11,890 --> 00:17:09,620
it's quite cloudy where I am so I can't

408
00:17:14,649 --> 00:17:11,900
really enjoy it but when it is clear

409
00:17:17,199 --> 00:17:14,659
let's try and enjoy and feel that

410
00:17:18,699 --> 00:17:17,209
solidarity that we know our place in our

411
00:17:22,750 --> 00:17:18,709
universe and that our university is

412
00:17:24,610 --> 00:17:22,760
gorgeous and beautiful and inspiring one

413
00:17:26,860 --> 00:17:24,620
last controversial question what about

414
00:17:29,140 --> 00:17:26,870
is it Elon Musk Annie's mini satellites

415
00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:29,150
how do you feel about that as someone

416
00:17:35,260 --> 00:17:31,250
who looks at the sky all the time as a

417
00:17:37,930 --> 00:17:35,270
job well I could go into a very long

418
00:17:40,360 --> 00:17:37,940
rant about this I'm not happy about this

419
00:17:42,250 --> 00:17:40,370
as many astronomers are not happy about

420
00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:42,260
this if you'd like to hear more about

421
00:17:46,360 --> 00:17:43,970
what I have to say about that you can

422
00:17:48,549 --> 00:17:46,370
listen to our many many podcast episodes

423
00:17:51,190 --> 00:17:48,559
on the scientists where myself or my

424
00:17:54,130 --> 00:17:51,200
co-host on how lava thunders go through

425
00:17:56,260 --> 00:17:54,140
all the issues we have with Starling and

426
00:17:57,340 --> 00:17:56,270
where can we find that on the web they

427
00:18:00,880 --> 00:17:57,350
find it on all of your favorite

428
00:18:02,770 --> 00:18:00,890
podcasting apps Spotify but we do post

429
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:02,780
them onto SoundCloud so if you want to

430
00:18:06,340 --> 00:18:04,490
get them straight away they'll be on

431
00:18:07,810 --> 00:18:06,350
soundcloud Kirstin thank you very much

432
00:18:09,340 --> 00:18:07,820
for your time today and it's going to be

433
00:18:12,639 --> 00:18:09,350
a comment we might not see it we might

434
00:18:13,930 --> 00:18:12,649
see it but do not be afraid a track I'm

435
00:18:15,279 --> 00:18:13,940
pretty see a bunch of a scaredy-cat the

436
00:18:32,069 --> 00:18:15,289
best of times but you've made me feel

437
00:18:38,319 --> 00:18:35,499
hi this is dr. Pamela gay from astronomy

438
00:18:40,239 --> 00:18:38,329
cast each week Fraser Cain and I take

439
00:18:42,489 --> 00:18:40,249
our listeners on a fact-based journey

440
00:18:45,189 --> 00:18:42,499
through the cosmos with our weekly

441
00:18:47,979 --> 00:18:45,199
podcast we explain not just what we know

442
00:18:50,859 --> 00:18:47,989
but how we know what we know about this

443
00:18:53,319 --> 00:18:50,869
universe that we share check us out at

444
00:18:55,719 --> 00:18:53,329
astronomy cast calm and look for us in

445
00:19:14,949 --> 00:18:55,729
itunes google play and wherever you

446
00:19:15,930 --> 00:19:14,959
download podcasts see online life is

447
00:19:22,250 --> 00:19:15,940
wild

448
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:22,260
[Music]

449
00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:29,410
with Michelle Franklin hi guys this is

450
00:19:32,910 --> 00:19:31,330
reporter Michelle Franklin checking in

451
00:19:36,150 --> 00:19:32,920
from the Northern Territory also known

452
00:19:38,580 --> 00:19:36,160
as the top end here in Australia I must

453
00:19:40,260 --> 00:19:38,590
say that for better or for worse this is

454
00:19:41,850 --> 00:19:40,270
the first time that I can remember where

455
00:19:44,370 --> 00:19:41,860
I really feel like part of a whole

456
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:44,380
planet no matter where we are or what

457
00:19:48,510 --> 00:19:46,570
we're doing we're all facing the same

458
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:48,520
thing and we're all on the same side

459
00:19:53,070 --> 00:19:52,090
against this one common enemy no matter

460
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:53,080
who you talk to

461
00:19:56,460 --> 00:19:55,090
we're all thinking about it and you

462
00:19:58,050 --> 00:19:56,470
don't even have to bring it up we all

463
00:20:00,720 --> 00:19:58,060
just know what the main topic of the

464
00:20:02,610 --> 00:20:00,730
conversation is going to be I know it's

465
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:02,620
a strange way to think of it but this

466
00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:10,090
really is a unifying event things are

467
00:20:14,190 --> 00:20:11,530
the NT are actually going really well

468
00:20:17,820 --> 00:20:14,200
from what I can tell yes we have all the

469
00:20:19,530 --> 00:20:17,830
same societal shutdowns and the flow on

470
00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:19,540
economic issues that everyone else is

471
00:20:26,250 --> 00:20:22,570
facing but aside from that we really are

472
00:20:28,170 --> 00:20:26,260
still in the very early stages we have

473
00:20:30,510 --> 00:20:28,180
had a few cases of people bringing the

474
00:20:33,030 --> 00:20:30,520
virus into the NT either from overseas

475
00:20:34,470 --> 00:20:33,040
or from interstate but due to the border

476
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:34,480
restrictions and the quarantine measures

477
00:20:38,340 --> 00:20:36,610
that have been put in place everyone's

478
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:38,350
been very successful with their social

479
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:40,090
distancing and no one's actually passed

480
00:20:45,660 --> 00:20:42,610
the virus on to anyone else the few

481
00:20:48,360 --> 00:20:45,670
cases we have had 14 currently have all

482
00:20:49,700 --> 00:20:48,370
either fully recovered or they're in

483
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:49,710
isolation still with no

484
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:53,050
cross-contamination happening I think

485
00:20:57,870 --> 00:20:54,850
this is a good indication of what social

486
00:20:59,430 --> 00:20:57,880
distancing can achieve and I'm sure it

487
00:21:02,610 --> 00:20:59,440
helps that our population density

488
00:21:04,530 --> 00:21:02,620
averages out to roughly 0.16 people per

489
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:04,540
square kilometer although that's a

490
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:06,490
little misleading in Doan City it gets

491
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:11,290
as high as 45 per square kilometer the

492
00:21:15,300 --> 00:21:13,450
changes for me have been minor in the

493
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:15,310
grand scheme but it still feels like a

494
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:18,010
whole new world for now I'm still going

495
00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:20,770
to my job everyday and what that looks

496
00:21:25,470 --> 00:21:23,290
like is changing rapidly we're not in

497
00:21:27,540 --> 00:21:25,480
the office much anymore but fieldwork is

498
00:21:30,630 --> 00:21:27,550
still going ahead as long as we can

499
00:21:32,610 --> 00:21:30,640
maintain the social distances Travel is

500
00:21:34,140 --> 00:21:32,620
heavily restricted to avoid the risk of

501
00:21:35,610 --> 00:21:34,150
spreading it into the aboriginal

502
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:35,620
communities of the NT

503
00:21:40,470 --> 00:21:38,530
I drove to Catherine and back yesterday

504
00:21:42,900 --> 00:21:40,480
and I went through two police

505
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:42,910
checkpoints where I was questioned on my

506
00:21:47,730 --> 00:21:45,610
origin and destination apparently this

507
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:47,740
is just one of the measures in place to

508
00:21:51,330 --> 00:21:49,570
prevent travel and subsequent spread

509
00:21:54,270 --> 00:21:51,340
into the vulnerable populations that are

510
00:21:57,060 --> 00:21:54,280
all around us here visiting cattle

511
00:21:58,410 --> 00:21:57,070
stations isn't the same either instead

512
00:22:00,150 --> 00:21:58,420
of dropping into the homestead for a

513
00:22:02,190 --> 00:22:00,160
cuppa run ask on now we just drive

514
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:02,200
straight past a locked gate and head

515
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:04,090
straight to our study sites with just a

516
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:07,450
radio in for welfare checks the schools

517
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:10,210
are still open for now but I've chosen

518
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:12,850
to voluntarily pull my kids out for the

519
00:22:16,890 --> 00:22:15,250
time being and luckily I'm in a position

520
00:22:19,500 --> 00:22:16,900
where I can do that there are some

521
00:22:21,870 --> 00:22:19,510
people who don't have that option but

522
00:22:23,549 --> 00:22:21,880
things are changing fast these days and

523
00:22:28,620 --> 00:22:23,559
I have no idea what will be happening

524
00:22:30,390 --> 00:22:28,630
next week so for now we're safe and well

525
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:30,400
up here and I'm actually more concerned

526
00:22:35,580 --> 00:22:32,410
about my friends and family in the south

527
00:22:37,980 --> 00:22:35,590
especially those who've casual

528
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:37,990
employment or those that rely on others

529
00:22:41,850 --> 00:22:39,730
who may be doing it tough

530
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:41,860
[Music]

531
00:22:46,980 --> 00:22:44,890
I know that the skeptic zone relies on

532
00:22:48,870 --> 00:22:46,990
the patronage of you the listeners and

533
00:22:51,419 --> 00:22:48,880
of course many of you are now going to

534
00:22:53,250 --> 00:22:51,429
be struggling but if you can't afford to

535
00:22:55,860 --> 00:22:53,260
keep contributing I know it would make a

536
00:22:57,960 --> 00:22:55,870
world of difference for Richard so thank

537
00:23:00,000 --> 00:22:57,970
you to those who can continue to help

538
00:23:02,820 --> 00:23:00,010
and for those who can't

539
00:23:04,889 --> 00:23:02,830
don't feel bad we will all get through

540
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:04,899
this however we can and trust that the

541
00:23:24,180 --> 00:23:22,210
zone will make it through to yellow

542
00:23:26,340 --> 00:23:24,190
severity peer group skeptic may be

543
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:26,350
limited : para llegar mr. LaRouche much

544
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:28,690
gonna be rat Apollo no module tops on

545
00:23:32,730 --> 00:23:30,730
the illustration jello scandal nayak

546
00:23:35,549 --> 00:23:32,740
demo still if assistance intolerant

547
00:23:37,769 --> 00:23:35,559
director Bob Arum diversity miss Connell

548
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:37,779
era VFR topic Chaka Demus a yellow

549
00:23:41,580 --> 00:23:39,250
Savard knocked org address in

550
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:41,590
derivatives Dennison lasciviousness so

551
00:23:45,750 --> 00:23:43,450
she our mediator busy violence of our

552
00:23:48,120 --> 00:23:45,760
colony J Dilla Twitter that the Facebook

553
00:23:50,100 --> 00:23:48,130
site from Santa Cuba David Parker

554
00:23:51,750 --> 00:23:50,110
Colorado mosquito the green tree so

555
00:23:54,269 --> 00:23:51,760
Peter is saying allow several YouTube

556
00:23:56,370 --> 00:23:54,279
calendar is a business visibility uncle

557
00:23:58,799 --> 00:23:56,380
max Carson is rich fat yellow Savar

558
00:24:01,500 --> 00:23:58,809
eight gmail noctilum address members a

559
00:24:03,370 --> 00:24:01,510
post-secondary Pierce or equivalently

560
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:03,380
Girish Magdalena so logical

561
00:24:36,810 --> 00:24:34,890
[Music]

562
00:24:39,580 --> 00:24:36,820
logical fallacies

563
00:24:42,740 --> 00:24:39,590
[Music]

564
00:24:44,810 --> 00:24:42,750
what are the logical fallacies and why

565
00:24:47,120 --> 00:24:44,820
is it important that critical thinkers

566
00:24:49,850 --> 00:24:47,130
should know about them

567
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:49,860
a logical fallacy is an error we can

568
00:24:55,130 --> 00:24:52,890
make in reasoning but it usually crops

569
00:24:58,850 --> 00:24:55,140
up when we are discussing or arguing our

570
00:25:01,310 --> 00:24:58,860
point of view some people might even

571
00:25:03,500 --> 00:25:01,320
knowingly use them to try and score

572
00:25:05,740 --> 00:25:03,510
cheap points in an argument due to

573
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:05,750
intellectual laziness

574
00:25:11,540 --> 00:25:09,090
they are traps we can fall into but if

575
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:11,550
we know what to look out for we can spot

576
00:25:20,210 --> 00:25:13,530
them when they occur and stop ourselves

577
00:25:23,860 --> 00:25:20,220
from using them this week we'll look at

578
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:23,870
post hoc ergo propter hoc

579
00:25:30,350 --> 00:25:27,330
also known as assuming the cause the

580
00:25:33,050 --> 00:25:30,360
faulty causal assumption or just post

581
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:33,060
hoc this is when two events occur in

582
00:25:38,510 --> 00:25:35,610
succession and it is believed that the

583
00:25:40,850 --> 00:25:38,520
first event must have caused the second

584
00:25:43,370 --> 00:25:40,860
event I want to put it another way the

585
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:43,380
second event is a result of the first

586
00:25:46,250 --> 00:25:44,010
event

587
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:46,260
it's the fallacy that applies when

588
00:25:52,730 --> 00:25:48,930
believing in superstition like positive

589
00:25:55,430 --> 00:25:52,740
outcomes due to Lucky Charms etc it also

590
00:25:58,400 --> 00:25:55,440
commonly occurs when alternative

591
00:26:01,430 --> 00:25:58,410
medicine is credited as providing a cure

592
00:26:04,970 --> 00:26:01,440
or science-based medicine is blamed for

593
00:26:07,310 --> 00:26:04,980
an unrelated condition we all know

594
00:26:11,270 --> 00:26:07,320
mother's chicken soup will cure the

595
00:26:13,730 --> 00:26:11,280
common cold right I mean only a few days

596
00:26:16,670 --> 00:26:13,740
after you eat some the cold will get

597
00:26:19,190 --> 00:26:16,680
better I put up an umbrella in the house

598
00:26:21,500 --> 00:26:19,200
today and you know what shortly after I

599
00:26:25,610 --> 00:26:21,510
lost my wallet good things and bad

600
00:26:28,340 --> 00:26:25,620
things happen to us all normally that's

601
00:26:30,620 --> 00:26:28,350
just part of everyday life and we don't

602
00:26:33,890 --> 00:26:30,630
think much about it once in a while

603
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:33,900
however something very bad happens to us

604
00:26:40,340 --> 00:26:36,890
and we are left looking for a reason

605
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:40,350
putting up an umbrella inside walking

606
00:26:45,890 --> 00:26:43,050
under a ladder or a black cat crossing

607
00:26:49,100 --> 00:26:45,900
your path are all classic superstitions

608
00:26:51,830 --> 00:26:49,110
and it's easy to see why some people

609
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:51,840
might latch on to these when looking for

610
00:26:58,660 --> 00:26:54,690
a reason as to why they had bad luck

611
00:27:00,950 --> 00:26:58,670
later on oh and don't forget

612
00:27:04,220 --> 00:27:00,960
superstitions are as

613
00:27:07,669 --> 00:27:04,230
Webster's dictionary has it a belief or

614
00:27:11,450 --> 00:27:07,679
practice resulting from ignorant fear of

615
00:27:15,830 --> 00:27:11,460
the unknown trust in magic or chance or

616
00:27:17,659 --> 00:27:15,840
a false conception of causation I was

617
00:27:21,830 --> 00:27:17,669
perfectly healthy until I started using

618
00:27:24,380 --> 00:27:21,840
a 5g cellphone now I have cancer it

619
00:27:26,539 --> 00:27:24,390
could be insensitive to start schooling

620
00:27:30,139 --> 00:27:26,549
a person battling cancer on it's

621
00:27:32,510 --> 00:27:30,149
possible causes but I think we can

622
00:27:35,659 --> 00:27:32,520
understand how people need to find a

623
00:27:38,990 --> 00:27:35,669
reason for things especially things they

624
00:27:42,100 --> 00:27:39,000
are trying to come to terms with even if

625
00:27:47,260 --> 00:27:45,350
sometimes any conclusion is better than

626
00:27:51,710 --> 00:27:47,270
none at all

627
00:27:56,210 --> 00:27:51,720
why did this happen to me is a question

628
00:27:59,690 --> 00:27:56,220
as old as our species in this case the

629
00:28:02,930 --> 00:27:59,700
reality is that while ionizing radiation

630
00:28:06,260 --> 00:28:02,940
is indeed dangerous the non ionizing

631
00:28:10,220 --> 00:28:06,270
level of radiation we are exposed to via

632
00:28:14,029 --> 00:28:10,230
5g does not present any known risks to

633
00:28:17,180 --> 00:28:14,039
us the worst we are likely to experience

634
00:28:21,260 --> 00:28:17,190
is warming on the skin that is so slight

635
00:28:23,870 --> 00:28:21,270
that we won't even notice it but this

636
00:28:27,190 --> 00:28:23,880
fact doesn't stop people from blaming it

637
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:27,200
for health problems real or imagined I

638
00:28:33,830 --> 00:28:30,090
was suffering from too many negative

639
00:28:36,289 --> 00:28:33,840
emotions until I tried smudging since

640
00:28:40,130 --> 00:28:36,299
then my mind is clear and I feel

641
00:28:42,409 --> 00:28:40,140
positive smudging is a practice trending

642
00:28:46,490 --> 00:28:42,419
in the wellness industry that has been

643
00:28:49,010 --> 00:28:46,500
popularized by social media in Western

644
00:28:51,620 --> 00:28:49,020
culture it involves burning small

645
00:28:55,029 --> 00:28:51,630
bundles of foliage containing white sage

646
00:28:58,310 --> 00:28:55,039
that are commercially available in kits

647
00:29:01,250 --> 00:28:58,320
it is based on the ancient ceremonial

648
00:29:04,700 --> 00:29:01,260
practice of sage burning by First

649
00:29:08,049 --> 00:29:04,710
Nations people in the Americas maybe in

650
00:29:10,850 --> 00:29:08,059
some ways smudging does offer some help

651
00:29:13,940 --> 00:29:10,860
perhaps the act of waiving the smoking

652
00:29:14,899 --> 00:29:13,950
sticks around is enjoyable and negative

653
00:29:18,529 --> 00:29:14,909
emotions are

654
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:18,539
placed with positive ones and let's not

655
00:29:25,580 --> 00:29:21,450
forget how powerful rituals are in human

656
00:29:27,619 --> 00:29:25,590
societies however there are no chemical

657
00:29:31,450 --> 00:29:27,629
properties of smoke that promote

658
00:29:34,219 --> 00:29:31,460
emotional and physical health in fact

659
00:29:38,899 --> 00:29:34,229
inhaling smoke is more likely to cause

660
00:29:41,839 --> 00:29:38,909
harm therefore it is a fallacy to think

661
00:29:45,859 --> 00:29:41,849
the improvement is caused by the smoky

662
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:45,869
air per se it could also be a placebo

663
00:29:50,839 --> 00:29:48,570
effect or a mood that eventually

664
00:29:54,019 --> 00:29:50,849
improves on its own anyway

665
00:29:57,289 --> 00:29:54,029
my child was perfectly fine until they

666
00:30:00,109 --> 00:29:57,299
had the MMR vaccine then only months

667
00:30:02,479 --> 00:30:00,119
later they were diagnosed with autism

668
00:30:05,690 --> 00:30:02,489
here we see causality assigned

669
00:30:08,570 --> 00:30:05,700
incorrectly and the vaccines blamed as a

670
00:30:12,799 --> 00:30:08,580
cause for what is probably a genetic

671
00:30:15,349 --> 00:30:12,809
condition from systematic reviews of

672
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:15,359
studies based on millions of children

673
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:18,570
around the world we know that vaccines

674
00:30:25,729 --> 00:30:21,690
do not result in children developing

675
00:30:28,789 --> 00:30:25,739
autism the love and the need you have to

676
00:30:33,799 --> 00:30:28,799
protect your children can very easily

677
00:30:36,169 --> 00:30:33,809
color your thinking how satisfying it is

678
00:30:39,859 --> 00:30:36,179
when we think we have found the reason

679
00:30:43,129 --> 00:30:39,869
why something is happening it's a very

680
00:30:50,259 --> 00:30:43,139
deep need within us all to find out the

681
00:30:56,180 --> 00:30:53,239
jumping to a false conclusion can be

682
00:31:00,169 --> 00:30:56,190
more satisfying than having no

683
00:31:02,029 --> 00:31:00,179
conclusion at all in the end when a

684
00:31:05,149 --> 00:31:02,039
signing credit or blame to one

685
00:31:07,549 --> 00:31:05,159
occurrence that preceded another be sure

686
00:31:11,289 --> 00:31:07,559
that you have credible evidence that

687
00:31:15,770 --> 00:31:11,299
there really is a true cause-and-effect

688
00:31:20,830 --> 00:31:18,120
[Music]

689
00:31:23,290 --> 00:31:20,840
knowing a logical fallacy when you hear

690
00:31:25,660 --> 00:31:23,300
one and even knowing its name is

691
00:31:29,350 --> 00:31:25,670
important when arguing your point of

692
00:31:32,170 --> 00:31:29,360
view however you may come across as

693
00:31:34,750 --> 00:31:32,180
arrogant and not get very far if you

694
00:31:38,500 --> 00:31:34,760
call it out by name to your opponent

695
00:31:40,810 --> 00:31:38,510
when you hear it being used if your

696
00:31:43,630 --> 00:31:40,820
opponent calls you out for using one

697
00:31:47,230 --> 00:31:43,640
it's time to stop and think about how

698
00:31:49,540 --> 00:31:47,240
you were making your case use your

699
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:49,550
knowledge of logical fallacies wisely

700
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:52,850
and remember that even if your point of

701
00:31:58,360 --> 00:31:55,130
view is right and you know all the

702
00:32:01,660 --> 00:31:58,370
pitfalls in arguing your case it doesn't

703
00:32:05,050 --> 00:32:01,670
always mean you'll win on the day and a

704
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:05,060
skeptics we must also remember that we

705
00:32:13,510 --> 00:32:10,090
too can be wrong at times I'm sure

706
00:32:24,490 --> 00:32:13,520
because now from the VEX skeptics thanks

707
00:32:28,150 --> 00:32:24,500
for listening hi I'm Brad McCoy and I'm

708
00:32:29,770 --> 00:32:28,160
a GP coronavirus is dangerous you can

709
00:32:31,690 --> 00:32:29,780
spread the virus even when you don't

710
00:32:33,700 --> 00:32:31,700
have symptoms which means you're putting

711
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:33,710
yourself and your loved ones at risk if

712
00:32:49,430 --> 00:32:37,250
you leave the house please stay at home

713
00:33:03,329 --> 00:32:53,430
it's the raw skeptic report with Heidi

714
00:33:05,219 --> 00:33:03,339
Robertson hello everyone Heidi Robertson

715
00:33:08,430 --> 00:33:05,229
from the Northern Rivers vaccination

716
00:33:10,289 --> 00:33:08,440
supporters I don't know about you but

717
00:33:12,779 --> 00:33:10,299
I'm going through periods of time when I

718
00:33:16,019 --> 00:33:12,789
can't quite believe this situation is

719
00:33:19,379 --> 00:33:16,029
happening it's surreal like we're in the

720
00:33:21,989 --> 00:33:19,389
twilight zone or something speaking of

721
00:33:23,969 --> 00:33:21,999
which I am currently watching the

722
00:33:28,919 --> 00:33:23,979
original series of The Twilight Zone

723
00:33:31,739 --> 00:33:28,929
with my kids one Episode a day two short

724
00:33:34,519 --> 00:33:31,749
months ago myself and my family were

725
00:33:37,289 --> 00:33:34,529
returning from a family holiday in Japan

726
00:33:39,509 --> 00:33:37,299
we never would have predicted that a few

727
00:33:41,029 --> 00:33:39,519
weeks later we would be in

728
00:33:45,269 --> 00:33:41,039
self-isolation

729
00:33:47,489 --> 00:33:45,279
homeschooling me out of work and my

730
00:33:51,930 --> 00:33:47,499
husband's industry in construction also

731
00:33:55,619 --> 00:33:51,940
threatened I want to extend my heartfelt

732
00:33:58,079 --> 00:33:55,629
sympathies and empathy to you all out

733
00:34:00,509 --> 00:33:58,089
there if you are similarly facing

734
00:34:03,959 --> 00:34:00,519
financial and emotional hardship right

735
00:34:07,099 --> 00:34:03,969
now not that my empathy helps in any

736
00:34:10,260 --> 00:34:07,109
tangible way but it is there nonetheless

737
00:34:13,079 --> 00:34:10,270
it's really hard not knowing what the

738
00:34:16,319 --> 00:34:13,089
future will hold the uncertainty is

739
00:34:18,599 --> 00:34:16,329
really difficult to deal with my focus

740
00:34:21,329 --> 00:34:18,609
right now is on taking each day as it

741
00:34:23,579 --> 00:34:21,339
comes and trying to make sure our kids

742
00:34:26,609 --> 00:34:23,589
are as protected as they can be both

743
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:26,619
from the virus and from the saturation

744
00:34:35,279 --> 00:34:30,490
of covert 19:00 information that can be

745
00:34:37,289 --> 00:34:35,289
so easy to succumb to they need and for

746
00:34:40,409 --> 00:34:37,299
that matter I need to be informed and

747
00:34:43,529 --> 00:34:40,419
aware but not scared out of their minds

748
00:34:47,549 --> 00:34:43,539
and that is a delicate balance to

749
00:34:50,839 --> 00:34:47,559
maintain so here are a few things I've

750
00:34:53,099 --> 00:34:50,849
found that I can be positive about my

751
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:53,109
kids are finding ways to be creative

752
00:34:56,660 --> 00:34:54,330
with their sudden

753
00:34:59,600 --> 00:34:56,670
changing routine day one of

754
00:35:03,080 --> 00:34:59,610
homeschooling saw my youngest 11 years

755
00:35:06,260 --> 00:35:03,090
of age son blow up six balloons

756
00:35:08,180 --> 00:35:06,270
he drew faces on each one he then lined

757
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:08,190
up the kitchen stools in a school bus

758
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:10,650
seat formation put one balloon on each

759
00:35:15,020 --> 00:35:13,170
kitchen stool and then we all pretended

760
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:15,030
to hop on the bus and drive the balloons

761
00:35:20,900 --> 00:35:19,050
to school I'm becoming more involved in

762
00:35:23,180 --> 00:35:20,910
their learning we have created a

763
00:35:26,510 --> 00:35:23,190
timetable which we've refined every day

764
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:26,520
and it includes academic work quiet time

765
00:35:33,020 --> 00:35:30,450
playtime and exercise time we force

766
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:33,030
ourselves to stick to the routine and it

767
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:35,130
has really helped with providing them

768
00:35:40,610 --> 00:35:38,090
and me with some structure to the day

769
00:35:43,490 --> 00:35:40,620
I've also encouraged them to keep a

770
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:43,500
daily journal of this time it is after

771
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:45,450
all an historic event we're living

772
00:35:50,150 --> 00:35:47,610
through right now and to have a

773
00:35:52,490 --> 00:35:50,160
day-to-day log of the events and how

774
00:35:54,740 --> 00:35:52,500
they're feeling I feel will be

775
00:35:57,980 --> 00:35:54,750
invaluable for their future selves and

776
00:36:02,120 --> 00:35:57,990
also as a strategy for helping to manage

777
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:02,130
their current mental health and I'm

778
00:36:05,930 --> 00:36:03,690
finally going to have some time to get

779
00:36:08,090 --> 00:36:05,940
around to all the things I previously

780
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:08,100
didn't make time for like finishing that

781
00:36:14,420 --> 00:36:12,090
online photography course I have more of

782
00:36:16,730 --> 00:36:14,430
an appreciation for teachers health care

783
00:36:20,090 --> 00:36:16,740
workers petrol station operators

784
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:20,100
supermarket workers the researchers who

785
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:22,050
are working so hard on a vaccine for

786
00:36:27,110 --> 00:36:25,050
this and other treatment options all the

787
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:27,120
people out there who are helping with

788
00:36:31,790 --> 00:36:29,010
essential services for the rest of us

789
00:36:37,070 --> 00:36:31,800
thank you if you're one of these people

790
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:37,080
you are appreciated take care everyone

791
00:36:55,500 --> 00:36:52,220
[Music]

792
00:36:57,480 --> 00:36:55,510
Alaura ciao mi chiamo profesora de vo

793
00:37:00,990 --> 00:36:57,490
tuvalu incendiary totally casa su

794
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:01,000
licencia para la moda physica de chemica

795
00:37:06,390 --> 00:37:03,450
bureau gia astronomia

796
00:37:09,510 --> 00:37:06,400
mathematica atonte otra cosa

797
00:37:11,370 --> 00:37:09,520
guarda me su YouTube arrivederci

798
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:11,380
hey everyone this is Professor Dave I

799
00:37:14,820 --> 00:37:13,090
want to teach you about all kinds of

800
00:37:16,740 --> 00:37:14,830
things regarding science I want to tell

801
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:16,750
you about physics I want to tell you

802
00:37:22,890 --> 00:37:20,170
about chemistry biology astronomy math

803
00:37:24,570 --> 00:37:22,900
and many many more things come check me

804
00:37:39,380 --> 00:37:24,580
out on youtube the channel is called

805
00:37:46,230 --> 00:37:39,390
professor Dave explains take it easy and

806
00:37:47,100 --> 00:37:46,240
now a reading from the book of Tim with

807
00:37:58,960 --> 00:37:47,110
Tim Mendham

808
00:38:01,510 --> 00:37:58,970
executive officer of Australian skeptics

809
00:38:04,210 --> 00:38:01,520
Inc I'm also the editor of our magazine

810
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:04,220
the skeptic and this time we're looking

811
00:38:10,030 --> 00:38:07,010
at one of our challenges which was about

812
00:38:12,820 --> 00:38:10,040
water divining at MIT er this is part 2

813
00:38:14,650 --> 00:38:12,830
of that article covering the tests

814
00:38:19,380 --> 00:38:14,660
themselves and disappeared in the

815
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:19,390
skeptic June 2013 which is volume 33

816
00:38:24,250 --> 00:38:22,610
number 2 this was written by Steve

817
00:38:26,980 --> 00:38:24,260
Roberts one of our committee members and

818
00:38:28,270 --> 00:38:26,990
a good man with mathematics and he had

819
00:38:31,510 --> 00:38:28,280
to because this covered a lot of

820
00:38:36,819 --> 00:38:31,520
statistics and his report is looking at

821
00:38:41,890 --> 00:38:39,559
annual mighty meter master takes place

822
00:38:45,109 --> 00:38:41,900
at meta meter a town near Albury Wodonga

823
00:38:48,620 --> 00:38:45,119
well two hours drive Steve says so it's

824
00:38:50,510 --> 00:38:48,630
not really near anywhere in March 2013

825
00:38:53,569 --> 00:38:50,520
the skeptics repeated their tests of

826
00:38:57,710 --> 00:38:53,579
water dowsers first held there in 2001

827
00:38:59,809 --> 00:38:57,720
and 2002 this time we made several

828
00:39:01,819 --> 00:38:59,819
changes to the test protocols to

829
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:01,829
accommodate practical considerations and

830
00:39:06,319 --> 00:39:03,450
to present the challenge to the dowsers

831
00:39:09,589 --> 00:39:06,329
in the fairest way possible a lot of

832
00:39:11,390 --> 00:39:09,599
people do not think scientifically and

833
00:39:14,059 --> 00:39:11,400
it was an interesting and relevant

834
00:39:15,770 --> 00:39:14,069
challenge for us to offer our tests in a

835
00:39:18,980 --> 00:39:15,780
way that could be easily understood and

836
00:39:21,380 --> 00:39:18,990
seen to be fair we had the free use of

837
00:39:24,020 --> 00:39:21,390
the meter tennis court and surrounding

838
00:39:25,609 --> 00:39:24,030
grassy areas we had a lot of volunteers

839
00:39:27,770 --> 00:39:25,619
not only from the local group the

840
00:39:30,230 --> 00:39:27,780
borderline skeptics but also from

841
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:30,240
Melbourne and Sydney we had to devise

842
00:39:33,589 --> 00:39:31,890
ways of preparing and setting out the

843
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:33,599
samples that were practical and fair

844
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:37,650
without revealing the contents with

845
00:39:42,290 --> 00:39:39,930
$100,000 of Australian skeptics money at

846
00:39:44,900 --> 00:39:42,300
stake the temptation to cheat had to be

847
00:39:46,670 --> 00:39:44,910
accounted for and avoided we were

848
00:39:48,740 --> 00:39:46,680
gratified not to see any attempt to

849
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:48,750
cheat and none of the dowsers complained

850
00:39:53,450 --> 00:39:51,450
that our tests was unfair except for one

851
00:39:57,520 --> 00:39:53,460
gentleman who protested that our sand

852
00:40:00,790 --> 00:39:57,530
had minerals in it which it probably did

853
00:40:03,170 --> 00:40:00,800
so here's a bit about the test setup an

854
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:03,180
immediate obligation for us is to have

855
00:40:08,359 --> 00:40:05,970
clear wording for the challenge problems

856
00:40:10,309 --> 00:40:08,369
arise with such phrasings as the bottles

857
00:40:13,309 --> 00:40:10,319
contain a mixture of water and sand

858
00:40:16,130 --> 00:40:13,319
which could be misinterpreted likewise

859
00:40:19,220 --> 00:40:16,140
does better than chance mean any score

860
00:40:21,650 --> 00:40:19,230
more than 10 out of 20 we decided to

861
00:40:24,230 --> 00:40:21,660
present two litre plastic milk cartons

862
00:40:26,690 --> 00:40:24,240
each one full of either water or dry

863
00:40:28,460 --> 00:40:26,700
sand the containers were wrapped in

864
00:40:31,010 --> 00:40:28,470
canvas bags so one couldn't see the

865
00:40:32,900 --> 00:40:31,020
contents the sand ones were carefully

866
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:32,910
made the same weight as the water ones

867
00:40:37,940 --> 00:40:35,130
and you could not distinguish them by

868
00:40:39,589 --> 00:40:37,950
sloshing them about though you could

869
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:39,599
still tell the contents by squeezing

870
00:40:43,819 --> 00:40:42,210
them or seeing how they bounced it

871
00:40:45,829 --> 00:40:43,829
follows that whoever set out the

872
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:45,839
containers on the ground had to be kept

873
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:47,970
away from the dowsers or at least should

874
00:40:52,460 --> 00:40:48,450
not be

875
00:40:54,950 --> 00:40:52,470
to claim the prize as dowsers have wind

876
00:40:58,370 --> 00:40:54,960
in the past and did so again about

877
00:41:00,710 --> 00:40:58,380
impure water city water etc we use local

878
00:41:03,950 --> 00:41:00,720
sand and took our water from the foaming

879
00:41:05,750 --> 00:41:03,960
Rapids of the meta River at the site his

880
00:41:07,970 --> 00:41:05,760
freezing cold water gave problems with

881
00:41:11,300 --> 00:41:07,980
condensation but we managed to wipe the

882
00:41:13,550 --> 00:41:11,310
cartons enough to hide it now how many

883
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:13,560
containers should there be and at what

884
00:41:20,950 --> 00:41:16,530
odds in 2001 we'd used 20 samples

885
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:20,960
randomly filled 13 sand and 7 water in

886
00:41:26,030 --> 00:41:23,490
2002 we tried to be fair to the dowsers

887
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:26,040
by having 25 samples and letting them

888
00:41:30,579 --> 00:41:28,530
discard 5 attempts and choose what they

889
00:41:33,710 --> 00:41:30,589
thought would be their best 20 results

890
00:41:35,390 --> 00:41:33,720
this was impossible to explain and cause

891
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:35,400
more chaos and disputes as well as

892
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:37,290
making it harder for us to analyze the

893
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:40,410
results if there were 10 sand and 10

894
00:41:44,930 --> 00:41:42,690
water samples and the dowsers knew this

895
00:41:47,300 --> 00:41:44,940
then their scores could be biased toward

896
00:41:50,540 --> 00:41:47,310
getting a 10/10 result and this makes it

897
00:41:53,240 --> 00:41:50,550
harder to analyze but in 2001 with 13

898
00:41:56,990 --> 00:41:53,250
sand samples anyone who guessed 20 sands

899
00:41:59,780 --> 00:41:57,000
would have got 13 out of 20 right this

900
00:42:02,120 --> 00:41:59,790
year we wanted to do more than one test

901
00:42:04,550 --> 00:42:02,130
we were trying to get as much data as

902
00:42:07,579 --> 00:42:04,560
possible to make a decent histogram of

903
00:42:09,710 --> 00:42:07,589
results we decided to again have 20

904
00:42:12,470 --> 00:42:09,720
samples but to conduct multiple tests

905
00:42:14,780 --> 00:42:12,480
with rearranged samples and to guarantee

906
00:42:18,140 --> 00:42:14,790
that there would be between 8 and 12

907
00:42:20,390 --> 00:42:18,150
sand or water samples out of the 20 this

908
00:42:21,349 --> 00:42:20,400
was accomplished by preparing 28 samples

909
00:42:24,710 --> 00:42:21,359
yes 28

910
00:42:27,530 --> 00:42:24,720
bare with me of which 14 was sand and 14

911
00:42:30,500 --> 00:42:27,540
water two of each were laid out at the

912
00:42:32,569 --> 00:42:30,510
start of the course as known samples one

913
00:42:35,599 --> 00:42:32,579
unwrapped and one wrapped in the same

914
00:42:38,059 --> 00:42:35,609
canvas bags we were using this had to be

915
00:42:40,339 --> 00:42:38,069
doused correctly to avoid dowsers simply

916
00:42:43,670 --> 00:42:40,349
saying they were unable to perform for

917
00:42:45,319 --> 00:42:43,680
whatever reason the remaining 24 samples

918
00:42:48,170 --> 00:42:45,329
were then dumped into a wheelbarrow at

919
00:42:50,599 --> 00:42:48,180
random in privacy which was taken out

920
00:42:52,250 --> 00:42:50,609
onto the tennis court by two of us one

921
00:42:55,220 --> 00:42:52,260
of whom then drew a plain card to

922
00:42:56,780 --> 00:42:55,230
determine a location 1 to 20 the other

923
00:42:59,150 --> 00:42:56,790
person grabbed any sample of the

924
00:43:01,099 --> 00:42:59,160
wheelbarrow and put it there handling it

925
00:43:03,770 --> 00:43:01,109
carefully to avoid visibly shaking him

926
00:43:06,109 --> 00:43:03,780
the dowsers were then let out one by one

927
00:43:08,839 --> 00:43:06,119
each with a clipboard bearer who wrote

928
00:43:11,270 --> 00:43:08,849
down their results in two copies one of

929
00:43:13,670 --> 00:43:11,280
which was given to the dowser after the

930
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:13,680
dowsing the samples were visibly tipped

931
00:43:18,500 --> 00:43:16,170
out of the bags to show what they were

932
00:43:20,809 --> 00:43:18,510
the dowsers then all felt the need to

933
00:43:23,630 --> 00:43:20,819
read out and see where they went wrong

934
00:43:25,300 --> 00:43:23,640
they all did none scoring above

935
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:25,310
statistical chance

936
00:43:31,010 --> 00:43:27,930
the exposed samples were then collected

937
00:43:33,140 --> 00:43:31,020
and in privacy rebate and put back into

938
00:43:34,940 --> 00:43:33,150
the wheelbarrow in this way we could

939
00:43:35,990 --> 00:43:34,950
clear the whole field and set it up

940
00:43:38,930 --> 00:43:36,000
again in ten minutes

941
00:43:41,260 --> 00:43:38,940
and we ran three separate tests with the

942
00:43:43,579 --> 00:43:41,270
samples not correlated across tests

943
00:43:45,410 --> 00:43:43,589
doing this was simpler than it sounds

944
00:43:47,750 --> 00:43:45,420
but a lot of work went into working it

945
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:47,760
all out from past experience we knew

946
00:43:51,740 --> 00:43:49,770
there would be havoc and uncontrollable

947
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:51,750
crowds on the day and we had to work

948
00:43:57,069 --> 00:43:54,450
within that for this reason it was not

949
00:43:59,450 --> 00:43:57,079
possible to exhibit out $100,000 price

950
00:44:02,210 --> 00:43:59,460
plus ten thousand dollars added locally

951
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:02,220
for the day to the crowds of people that

952
00:44:05,930 --> 00:44:03,930
sort of money would attract would have

953
00:44:08,780 --> 00:44:05,940
disturbed the dowsers and presented

954
00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:08,790
risks of cheating and theft it's our

955
00:44:16,250 --> 00:44:12,930
money and we make the rules now we look

956
00:44:18,109 --> 00:44:16,260
at checking the odds we decided to set

957
00:44:20,030 --> 00:44:18,119
up odds of about a thousand to one

958
00:44:23,359 --> 00:44:20,040
against succeeding by chance on the day

959
00:44:25,970 --> 00:44:23,369
and this performance would have to be

960
00:44:28,089 --> 00:44:25,980
repeated on another day to claim the

961
00:44:30,740 --> 00:44:28,099
hundred and ten thousand dollars

962
00:44:33,170 --> 00:44:30,750
allowing factors for costs involved in

963
00:44:35,089 --> 00:44:33,180
the odds actually being a bit less than

964
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:35,099
a thousand to one it was fair for the

965
00:44:39,470 --> 00:44:37,770
dowsers to pay $1 to play and all the

966
00:44:42,950 --> 00:44:39,480
money we raised was donated to the metal

967
00:44:45,650 --> 00:44:42,960
master the odds against the score of 17

968
00:44:49,609 --> 00:44:45,660
out of 20 or better in a single trial

969
00:44:51,710 --> 00:44:49,619
would be about 776 to 1 and the odds

970
00:44:55,910 --> 00:44:51,720
against the score of 18 out of 20 or

971
00:44:58,099 --> 00:44:55,920
better would be about 4970 the one about

972
00:45:00,290 --> 00:44:58,109
because the distribution of samples is

973
00:45:03,079 --> 00:45:00,300
not exactly random and for practical

974
00:45:05,300 --> 00:45:03,089
factors since we encourage the dowsers

975
00:45:08,270 --> 00:45:05,310
to have several goals we decided to take

976
00:45:10,820 --> 00:45:08,280
a score of 18 out of 20 or more on any

977
00:45:13,370 --> 00:45:10,830
trial they chose as the criterion for

978
00:45:14,450 --> 00:45:13,380
success we initially thought that if

979
00:45:17,900 --> 00:45:14,460
someone godsake

980
00:45:20,630 --> 00:45:17,910
10 11 and 18 out of 20 we would add

981
00:45:21,109 --> 00:45:20,640
these to make 39 out of 60 which is 70 3

982
00:45:24,020 --> 00:45:21,119
2 1

983
00:45:26,750 --> 00:45:24,030
an insignificant score when there are

984
00:45:29,060 --> 00:45:26,760
dozens of competitors the dowser however

985
00:45:31,310 --> 00:45:29,070
would view this as a success of 18 out

986
00:45:35,270 --> 00:45:31,320
of 20 ignoring the other poor results

987
00:45:38,510 --> 00:45:35,280
and would want the price one of the 52

988
00:45:40,310 --> 00:45:38,520
dowsers in 2001 scored 13 out of 20 and

989
00:45:42,859 --> 00:45:40,320
then tried to argue that as he had

990
00:45:45,589 --> 00:45:42,869
doused 13 samples of sand and there were

991
00:45:46,609 --> 00:45:45,599
13 sand samples in total even if they

992
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:46,619
weren't exactly the ones he had

993
00:45:51,349 --> 00:45:48,690
identified he considered that he had won

994
00:45:53,359 --> 00:45:51,359
and would be sending the check he then

995
00:45:56,270 --> 00:45:53,369
tried to litigate against us with

996
00:45:58,190 --> 00:45:56,280
comparable success so we decided that

997
00:46:00,440 --> 00:45:58,200
the only way to explain this fairly and

998
00:46:02,390 --> 00:46:00,450
visibly to non mathematicians was to

999
00:46:04,310 --> 00:46:02,400
allow a free choice of any set of 20

1000
00:46:07,220 --> 00:46:04,320
results in exchange for making the

1001
00:46:08,599 --> 00:46:07,230
required score as high as 18 out of 20

1002
00:46:12,410 --> 00:46:08,609
in the event

1003
00:46:14,210 --> 00:46:12,420
nobody achieved this here's a section of

1004
00:46:16,609 --> 00:46:14,220
an article called the best score and

1005
00:46:18,500 --> 00:46:16,619
despite the heading it is actually a

1006
00:46:20,599 --> 00:46:18,510
serious mistake to use the phrase of the

1007
00:46:21,380 --> 00:46:20,609
best score unless it is statistically

1008
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:21,390
significant

1009
00:46:27,650 --> 00:46:25,050
which none work all day but we'll do it

1010
00:46:31,130 --> 00:46:27,660
anyway the highest scoring was by a

1011
00:46:34,010 --> 00:46:31,140
young girl who got 13 15 and 13 out of

1012
00:46:36,620 --> 00:46:34,020
20 the best result that can be made of

1013
00:46:39,470 --> 00:46:36,630
this is 41 out of sixty three hundred

1014
00:46:41,570 --> 00:46:39,480
and twenty-two to one heard hours a

1015
00:46:45,010 --> 00:46:41,580
father bristling with paternal pride

1016
00:46:47,390 --> 00:46:45,020
himself got eight nine and sixteen

1017
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:47,400
choosing the score of 16 at a twenty

1018
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:48,930
that is a hundred and sixty nine to one

1019
00:46:52,070 --> 00:46:50,330
against chance

1020
00:46:53,720 --> 00:46:52,080
these figures are nowhere near

1021
00:46:55,670 --> 00:46:53,730
significant given that these results

1022
00:46:58,520 --> 00:46:55,680
were freely chosen from the 79

1023
00:47:00,560 --> 00:46:58,530
independent trials we conducted so

1024
00:47:03,620 --> 00:47:00,570
another year another dowsing test

1025
00:47:05,660 --> 00:47:03,630
another bell curve of results closely

1026
00:47:08,570 --> 00:47:05,670
fitting the Gaussian normal distribution

1027
00:47:10,579 --> 00:47:08,580
to be expected by pure chance why did we

1028
00:47:12,890 --> 00:47:10,589
do this when a skeptics we were pretty

1029
00:47:15,170 --> 00:47:12,900
sure what the results would be well it

1030
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:15,180
was great fun you said admit emitter a

1031
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:16,890
couple of nights we had beer and

1032
00:47:20,270 --> 00:47:19,050
barbecues we toured the area and we met

1033
00:47:23,300 --> 00:47:20,280
with old friends and made new friends

1034
00:47:25,670 --> 00:47:23,310
from interstate but most of all it was

1035
00:47:27,620 --> 00:47:25,680
to be able to conduct a fair scientific

1036
00:47:28,540 --> 00:47:27,630
test in the real world and to

1037
00:47:31,810 --> 00:47:28,550
demonstrate to ours

1038
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:31,820
and everyone else how to do that we

1039
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:33,650
ourselves learned a lot about devising a

1040
00:47:38,370 --> 00:47:35,690
practical explainable cheap proof

1041
00:47:41,530 --> 00:47:38,380
protocol and calculating real-world odds

1042
00:47:43,030 --> 00:47:41,540
if anyone had performed above chance one

1043
00:47:45,430 --> 00:47:43,040
hundred and ten thousand dollars would

1044
00:47:47,430 --> 00:47:45,440
be nothing to what could be made on the

1045
00:47:49,480 --> 00:47:47,440
back of that sort of success

1046
00:47:51,940 --> 00:47:49,490
several of the dowsers came from a

1047
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:51,950
nearby valley since the locals know as a

1048
00:47:57,160 --> 00:47:54,410
place with how do I say this

1049
00:47:58,480 --> 00:47:57,170
not many rich people a good closing

1050
00:48:00,610 --> 00:47:58,490
comment is from one of the dowsers

1051
00:48:03,430 --> 00:48:00,620
chatting with his family saying he did

1052
00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:03,440
well to get 12 out of 20 which is sort

1053
00:48:07,870 --> 00:48:06,290
of above average being within earshot I

1054
00:48:10,240 --> 00:48:07,880
pointed out that due to the number of

1055
00:48:12,370 --> 00:48:10,250
tries that he'd had and the randomness

1056
00:48:15,190 --> 00:48:12,380
inherent in reality his score was not

1057
00:48:18,300 --> 00:48:15,200
better than average well I don't mind

1058
00:48:20,830 --> 00:48:18,310
being average he reasonably concluded

1059
00:48:22,690 --> 00:48:20,840
Steve wishes to add that all the dowsers

1060
00:48:25,210 --> 00:48:22,700
were nice people generally with a

1061
00:48:28,450 --> 00:48:25,220
constructive attitude and he wished them

1062
00:48:31,420 --> 00:48:28,460
well he didn't want the skeptics to keep

1063
00:48:33,730 --> 00:48:31,430
picking on dowsers for all of our tests

1064
00:48:35,860 --> 00:48:33,740
but the shaolin's out there know that we

1065
00:48:40,990 --> 00:48:35,870
are serious in that challenge and they

1066
00:48:43,380 --> 00:48:41,000
have been warned that was part two of

1067
00:48:46,150 --> 00:48:43,390
our articles on divining at MIT er

1068
00:48:51,790 --> 00:48:46,160
appeared in the skeptic magazine June

1069
00:48:53,740 --> 00:48:51,800
2013 which is volume 33 number 2 and you

1070
00:48:55,980 --> 00:48:53,750
can download all of these skeptic

1071
00:48:58,290 --> 00:48:55,990
magazines from our website at

1072
00:49:01,810 --> 00:48:58,300
www.att.com/biz

1073
00:49:04,540 --> 00:49:01,820
the magazine and scroll down and you'll

1074
00:49:06,460 --> 00:49:04,550
find 39 years worth of magazines to

1075
00:49:08,290 --> 00:49:06,470
there to have a look at in the next

1076
00:49:11,020 --> 00:49:08,300
installment I'll be looking at the third

1077
00:49:13,390 --> 00:49:11,030
part of our meta meta challenge and

1078
00:49:16,000 --> 00:49:13,400
that's looking at the people involved

1079
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:16,010
the diviners themselves

1080
00:49:28,660 --> 00:49:26,589
hello Anala needle on solo scoffs of

1081
00:49:31,030 --> 00:49:28,670
deep moments been to an atlas another

1082
00:49:36,130 --> 00:49:31,040
skeptic zone for we to stop and Katie

1083
00:49:41,460 --> 00:49:36,140
snide anger a meeting for Marcy fauna we

1084
00:49:51,330 --> 00:49:42,820
[Applause]

1085
00:49:57,880 --> 00:49:53,890
thank you for listening to the skeptic

1086
00:49:59,800 --> 00:49:57,890
Zone in these strange times and speaking

1087
00:50:01,750 --> 00:49:59,810
about strange things the other week on

1088
00:50:06,700 --> 00:50:01,760
the show you would have heard me talking

1089
00:50:09,730 --> 00:50:06,710
about some dodgy advice when it comes to

1090
00:50:13,630 --> 00:50:09,740
covert 19 including somebody offering a

1091
00:50:16,690 --> 00:50:13,640
test via the phone using the discredited

1092
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:16,700
modality of applied kinesiology that was

1093
00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:19,010
an outfit called base side kinesiology

1094
00:50:25,900 --> 00:50:23,090
in Queensland and it's sort of inspired

1095
00:50:32,530 --> 00:50:25,910
me to try something with all of your

1096
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:32,540
help over the next week's months if you

1097
00:50:37,780 --> 00:50:34,690
spot

1098
00:50:39,790 --> 00:50:37,790
advertisement signs or whatever online

1099
00:50:44,020 --> 00:50:39,800
or if you're out and about doing your

1100
00:50:48,180 --> 00:50:44,030
shopping exercising and you spot signs

1101
00:50:52,150 --> 00:50:48,190
for the curve at 19 throwing a virus

1102
00:50:54,849 --> 00:50:52,160
offering treatments or testing or

1103
00:50:58,900 --> 00:50:54,859
something like this will boost your

1104
00:51:02,680 --> 00:50:58,910
immunity against the disease from there

1105
00:51:06,820 --> 00:51:02,690
I say quacks whoo merchants alternative

1106
00:51:10,089 --> 00:51:06,830
medicine energy healers vitamins that

1107
00:51:12,310 --> 00:51:10,099
sort of thing I will ask you to take a

1108
00:51:16,750 --> 00:51:12,320
picture take a screen cap note the

1109
00:51:18,310 --> 00:51:16,760
details where when and eventually I'll

1110
00:51:20,349 --> 00:51:18,320
get you to send those in I haven't

1111
00:51:25,990 --> 00:51:20,359
decided where we're going to put those

1112
00:51:29,320 --> 00:51:26,000
just yet and we can have a a reference a

1113
00:51:31,530 --> 00:51:29,330
catalog a list of people making these

1114
00:51:35,349 --> 00:51:31,540
outrageous and dangerous claims at this

1115
00:51:38,170 --> 00:51:35,359
terrible time and then maybe we can do

1116
00:51:43,150 --> 00:51:38,180
something about it or at least we'll

1117
00:51:44,890 --> 00:51:43,160
have a reference so keep your eyes open

1118
00:51:47,829 --> 00:51:44,900
keep your eyes open I know there's been

1119
00:51:50,859 --> 00:51:47,839
some some already more about that in the

1120
00:51:52,630 --> 00:51:50,869
coming months also for those of you

1121
00:51:55,420 --> 00:51:52,640
stuck at home with kids or just by

1122
00:51:57,940 --> 00:51:55,430
yourself or whatever if you go to the

1123
00:52:00,609 --> 00:51:57,950
Facebook page of the skeptic zone

1124
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:00,619
podcast and you can find the link on the

1125
00:52:02,570 --> 00:52:01,050
shown

1126
00:52:05,830 --> 00:52:02,580
so if you just go to Facebook and look

1127
00:52:11,300 --> 00:52:05,840
up skeptics on podcast I've been posting

1128
00:52:14,450 --> 00:52:11,310
lately some origami videos now some

1129
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:14,460
years ago and when was it 2008 my good

1130
00:52:20,510 --> 00:52:16,410
friend Gary Clark and I made a DVD

1131
00:52:23,210 --> 00:52:20,520
called DVD origami and it's got lots of

1132
00:52:26,390 --> 00:52:23,220
her models fun models to make well I'm

1133
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:26,400
posting up the videos day by day at the

1134
00:52:31,220 --> 00:52:28,170
skeptic zone Facebook page for you to

1135
00:52:32,810 --> 00:52:31,230
fold along at home and people have been

1136
00:52:34,790 --> 00:52:32,820
doing it I've been quite pleased people

1137
00:52:37,130 --> 00:52:34,800
fold along the models and post up the

1138
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:37,140
photographs you might enjoy that on

1139
00:52:43,100 --> 00:52:40,170
Facebook and probably elsewhere there's

1140
00:52:48,080 --> 00:52:43,110
a picture going around with the word

1141
00:52:49,790 --> 00:52:48,090
corona cor ona which has six letters and

1142
00:52:51,860 --> 00:52:49,800
some bright spark has figured out that

1143
00:52:54,500 --> 00:52:51,870
if you add up all the letters together

1144
00:52:58,340 --> 00:52:54,510
in the English alphabet the total of

1145
00:53:01,670 --> 00:52:58,350
those letters comes to 66 so you get

1146
00:53:06,200 --> 00:53:01,680
Corona six and the total six six and

1147
00:53:08,270 --> 00:53:06,210
they say oh look at 666 and why we might

1148
00:53:09,920 --> 00:53:08,280
think that's a fun coincidence or

1149
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:09,930
interesting there are actually some

1150
00:53:17,980 --> 00:53:12,330
people taking it seriously thank you do

1151
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:21,200
work and I was looking for other words

1152
00:53:30,100 --> 00:53:24,890
six little words that also equals 66 I

1153
00:53:32,030 --> 00:53:30,110
was hoping to find a word related to the

1154
00:53:35,330 --> 00:53:32,040
paranormal but I came up with a word

1155
00:53:39,470 --> 00:53:35,340
family so there you go if Corona equals

1156
00:53:42,080 --> 00:53:39,480
666 so does the word family and you can

1157
00:53:44,900 --> 00:53:42,090
see that also at the skeptics own

1158
00:53:47,510 --> 00:53:44,910
Facebook page coming up on next week's

1159
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:47,520
show the last in the series of the water

1160
00:53:52,100 --> 00:53:49,770
divining story with Tim Mendham more

1161
00:53:56,690 --> 00:53:52,110
logical fallacies with Michelle Becker's

1162
00:54:00,110 --> 00:53:56,700
math and whatever the week will bring us

1163
00:54:02,450 --> 00:54:00,120
and if this last month has taught us

1164
00:54:06,170 --> 00:54:02,460
anything at all is that you never know

1165
00:54:08,510 --> 00:54:06,180
what's coming you never which reminds us

1166
00:54:09,830 --> 00:54:08,520
once again that these thousands of

1167
00:54:11,600 --> 00:54:09,840
people around the world who claim they

1168
00:54:13,499 --> 00:54:11,610
can predict the future of psychic powers

1169
00:54:15,749 --> 00:54:13,509
etc etc

1170
00:54:17,849 --> 00:54:15,759
and I've been doing a lot of research on

1171
00:54:20,309 --> 00:54:17,859
this as you may well know I hope by the

1172
00:54:24,209 --> 00:54:20,319
end of the year to produce a major paper

1173
00:54:27,779 --> 00:54:24,219
on psychic predictions but no spoilers

1174
00:54:30,299 --> 00:54:27,789
roughly 90% of what psychics and seers

1175
00:54:34,529 --> 00:54:30,309
and soothsayers say about the future is

1176
00:54:36,689 --> 00:54:34,539
wrong about 90% on average and lastly as

1177
00:54:40,079 --> 00:54:36,699
ever and now more important than ever

1178
00:54:42,839 --> 00:54:40,089
thank you thank you to the patreon and

1179
00:54:48,689 --> 00:54:42,849
PayPal supporters who have kept with the

1180
00:54:50,969 --> 00:54:48,699
skeptic zone of course it means more to

1181
00:54:52,499 --> 00:54:50,979
me than you can possibly know because I

1182
00:54:54,359 --> 00:54:52,509
really do want to keep this show going

1183
00:54:58,829 --> 00:54:54,369
for your entertainment and your

1184
00:55:01,559 --> 00:54:58,839
education if you're out doing your daily

1185
00:55:03,269 --> 00:55:01,569
exercise which I hope you're doing or

1186
00:55:05,129 --> 00:55:03,279
stuck at home I hope the show means

1187
00:55:07,679 --> 00:55:05,139
something to you and I really do thank

1188
00:55:11,009 --> 00:55:07,689
you people who contribute at skeptic

1189
00:55:18,029 --> 00:55:11,019
zone TV thank you so much but for this

1190
00:55:19,379 --> 00:55:18,039
week from from a very quiet and eerie

1191
00:55:29,089 --> 00:55:19,389
Sydney Australia

1192
00:55:35,120 --> 00:55:31,620
you've been listening to the skeptic

1193
00:55:39,389 --> 00:55:35,130
zone podcast please visit our website at

1194
00:55:41,849 --> 00:55:39,399
WWF dicks on TV for show notes contacts

1195
00:55:45,899 --> 00:55:41,859
and to access the back catalog of

1196
00:55:47,609 --> 00:55:45,909
episodes going back to 2008 you can

1197
00:55:50,669 --> 00:55:47,619
follow the skeptic zone podcast on

1198
00:55:52,949 --> 00:55:50,679
twitter at skeptic zone visit our

1199
00:55:53,839 --> 00:55:52,959
facebook page or leave a review on

1200
00:55:56,519 --> 00:55:53,849
itunes

1201
00:55:59,909 --> 00:55:56,529
you can also support the skeptic zone

1202
00:56:03,299 --> 00:55:59,919
via patreon or PayPal the skeptic zone

1203
00:56:05,009 --> 00:56:03,309
podcast is an independent production the

1204
00:56:07,109 --> 00:56:05,019
views and opinions expressed on the

1205
00:56:09,479 --> 00:56:07,119
skeptic zone are not necessarily those

1206
00:56:11,290 --> 00:56:09,489
of Australian skeptics or any other

1207
00:56:21,850 --> 00:56:11,300
skeptical organisation

1208
00:56:26,840 --> 00:56:25,550
hello to all the chemi hello to all the

1209
00:56:27,650 --> 00:56:26,850
afterthoughts that people who listen

1210
00:56:32,420 --> 00:56:27,660
after the music

1211
00:56:33,380 --> 00:56:32,430
it's Richard Saunders here with what she

1212
00:56:36,460 --> 00:56:33,390
just ran out of the room

1213
00:56:38,750 --> 00:56:36,470
more The Skeptical cat was just here

1214
00:56:42,290 --> 00:56:38,760
running a scratch on the back come on

1215
00:56:45,550 --> 00:56:42,300
can't coming inside come on I'll get the

1216
00:56:47,900 --> 00:56:45,560
back scratcher out here we are just Oh

1217
00:56:54,620 --> 00:56:47,910
suddenly there's a cat what do you want

1218
00:57:00,700 --> 00:56:54,630
mmm you in a back scratch yeah no right

1219
00:57:09,500 --> 00:57:00,710
I'll give you a there we go how's that

1220
00:57:12,530 --> 00:57:09,510
hmm okay now it's time for the dice game

1221
00:57:14,090 --> 00:57:12,540
and this week because people are doing

1222
00:57:17,630 --> 00:57:14,100
lots of things at home and I'm posting

1223
00:57:20,290 --> 00:57:17,640
origami videos online this week I'm

1224
00:57:22,970 --> 00:57:20,300
going to use a six-sided dice die

1225
00:57:23,390 --> 00:57:22,980
six-sided dice made from paper I kid you

1226
00:57:27,560 --> 00:57:23,400
not

1227
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:27,570
here it is I know you can't see it but

1228
00:57:34,030 --> 00:57:31,050
it is a it's not a cube in sort of a

1229
00:57:36,290 --> 00:57:34,040
weird six-sided shape

1230
00:57:40,910 --> 00:57:36,300
regardless hmm have to look that up

1231
00:57:45,040 --> 00:57:40,920
anyway it works it works so everybody at

1232
00:57:47,240 --> 00:57:45,050
home use your psychic abilities oh yeah

1233
00:57:50,260 --> 00:57:47,250
it's actually there is lots of comment

1234
00:57:52,670 --> 00:57:50,270
on the Internet at the moment how

1235
00:57:55,010 --> 00:57:52,680
psychics completely and utterly failed

1236
00:57:57,560 --> 00:57:55,020
to predict the biggest event since World

1237
00:58:02,600 --> 00:57:57,570
War two but there you go we might do

1238
00:58:04,520 --> 00:58:02,610
more of this later predict away one two

1239
00:58:06,470 --> 00:58:04,530
three four five or six here we go what

1240
00:58:11,210 --> 00:58:06,480
number are you thinking of rolling the

1241
00:58:15,410 --> 00:58:11,220
origami dice five first number this week

1242
00:58:18,530 --> 00:58:15,420
is five all right next number coming up

1243
00:58:31,430 --> 00:58:23,360
four five and four all right that's my

1244
00:58:33,980 --> 00:58:31,440
age how about that and last one to this

1245
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:33,990
week's origami numbers are five four and